Turkey and Iraq the perils (and prospects) of proximity

Summary: Throughout the 1990s, Turkey was the anchor in the containment of Saddam Hussein's Iraq by the United States. The unpredictable set of events unleashed by Operation Iraqi Freedom has unnerved both Turkish decision makers and the public alike. The U.S.-led coalition's operation in Iraq has also upended Turkey's fundamental interests in Iraq, which are fourfold: (1) Prevent the division of Iraq along sectarian or ethnic lines that would give rise to an independent or confederal Kurdish state (with the oil-rich city of Kirkuk as its capital), thus supporting aspiratins for a similar entity in Turkey's own extensive Kurdish population. (2) Protect Turkish-speaking Turkmen minority, which resides primarily in northern Iraq. (3) Eliminate the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the Turkish Kurdish insurgent movement, which has sought refuge in the northeast of Iraq following its defeat in 1999. (4) Prevent the emergence of a potentially hostile nondemocratic fundamentalist Iraqi state.

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